Nick's random and sometimes not so random thoughts on Pandemic Influenza

Tuesday, August 01, 2006

Thailand appears to be in a state of confusion over bird flu. There are conflicting reports about positive human H5N1 cases and the number of people under observation. Officially, there have been no more human cases of H5N1 but local officials are saying two people tested positive yesterday. The Nation notes that 6 of the 765 people that had some part in the culling of infected birds this past weekend have developed fevers. Most interestingly, they note that four have tested negative for H5N1 and the other two have been given Tamiflu. These 765 people under surveillance are from one province.

Thailand has also declared all 76 provinces “animal epidemic control areas” because of H5N1.

The CDC published an article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS) on influenza reassortment (two different virus strains combine into a hybrid) this week. It has garnered a tremendous amount of media attention, as proof that a pandemic is unlikely, which is not accurate. The researchers at the CDC tried to combine a common influenza virus with H5N1 to create a pandemic strain. They did not succeed. The Director of the CDC, Dr. Julie Gerberdng provided a nice summary of what the research actually shows, “These data do not mean that H5N1 cannot convert to be transmissible from person to person; they mean it's probably not a simple process and more than simple genetic exchanges are necessary.”

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